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Is Your Job Moving to Asia?
If
you think your boss is putting too much pressure on you to be
more productive at the office, just pick up a copy of the book
Three Billion New Capitalists, and you might feel differently
about stress at work.
Indeed,
in his latest book, Clyde Prestowitz says that in today’s
economy where three billion new workers – mostly from India
and China – have joined the global workforce, those who can do
things no one else can do will prosper, but those without
special skills will face long hours and low pay.
“No
industry will be safe from competition. Services, research and
development, and basic research, in which the West now leads the
world, could all follow manufacturing to Asia,” writes the
founder and current President of the Economic Strategy Institute
in Washington, D.C.
India
and China are riding the crest of what Prestowitz calls “the
third wave of globalization.” The key elements of this new
wave are the negation of time and distance and the rapid
transfer of technology from advanced to developing countries.
The
book, which Prestowitz subtitled “The great shift of wealth
and power to the East,” is a highly engaging and strategic
overview of the massive changes that will affect every working
person on the planet.
“It
has long been assumed that as manufacturing jobs disappeared,
the service industries would provide secure, high-paying jobs to
compensate for the loss of manufacturing. That view, however, is
pre-Internet and pre-third wave. It may not be sustainable in
the world of 3 billion new capitalists all online.”
The
book is neatly divided into 12 chapters, the four most critical
chapters, as far as ordinary working people are concerned, are
Icebergs Ahead, How the Capitalist Road Turned East, Made in
China, and Serviced in India.
So
who are these three billion new capitalists?
According
to Prestowitz, 1.3 billion are coming from China, another
billion from India and another 700,000 from Russia, the
countries of Central Asia and Eastern Europe, the former Soviet
Bloc. All of them, says the author, have abandoned communism or
socialism and moved on to the capitalist road.
Prestowitz
doesn’t explicitly say so, but his thesis suggests that we are
living in a sort of global Darwinian economy, where only the
fittest will survive and thrive.
Indeed,
not only are jobs being offshored, but three billion new workers
– all smart and hungry for success – are coming to town to
compete for work, thanks to the Internet and the global air
delivery services of companies like FedEx.
Prestowitz
says that time and distance have been eliminated for any type of
work that can be done digitally or electronically, such as
software development or call center services. In short, the
three billion new players are here, possibly to stay.
Reuters'
CEO Tom Glocer goes even further: “The amazing thing – and
this is the dirty little secret about outsourcing that people
need to talk about publicly a bit more – not only is the cost
reduction amazing at four, five, and even six to one, but the
quality and productivity are better too.”
How
did it all start? Prestowitz describes in two chapters aptly
titled “Made in China” and “Serviced in India”, the
exciting tale of how the two nations rose to become major
economic powers.
He
says the transformation of China began slowly and cautiously,
but eventually resulted in $200 billion in foreign direct
investment by the end of the century. In 2003 China passed the
United States as the number one recipient of foreign direct
investment, $53 billion to $40 billion.
Of
all the dazzling statistics China has posted, the most
impressive is that in 20 years it has lifted some 400 million of
its 1.3 billion people out of grinding $1-a-day poverty.
Citing
cheap labour as the main reason why companies like Nike and
Motorola moved into China in the 1980s, he writes that
“Chinese labor is well disciplined and largely literate with
the ability to learn skills quickly. A significant portion of
the Chinese factory workforce is as skilled as United States
production line workers. But while Americans earn $15-$30 per
hour, in China they are paid $0.25-$1.00 per hour.”
Prestowitz
notes there are still 800 million poor people in the countryside
just aching for a shot at a factory job in the city.
He
ends the chapter by hinting that perhaps the solution to the
loss of manufacturing lies in services. Then the next chapter,
titled Serviced in India, starts with a quote that apparently
reveals India’s overall strategy: “India is beginning to do
in services what China has been doing in manufacturing.” (Azim
Premji, Wipro chairman).
“India's
service-providing capabilities are both world-class and
extraordinarily broad, encompassing not only information
technology but also biotech, a range of medical treatments that
have given rise to medical tourism, combinations of technology,
finance, and more,” writes Prestowitz.
In
engineering and science India now produces about 250,000
graduates, rising to 500,000 annually, who earn a starting
salary of $5,000-$6,000 a year. These figures compare to 400,000
science and engineering graduates annually in the United States
and to $50,000 and up starting salaries.
Whereas
a programmer's salary in the United States is typically around
$80,000, in India it is about $11,000.
“This
combination of skills, low cost, quality work, and instant
communication means that few aspects of your life will remain
untouched by the outsourcing of services to India,” says
Prestowitz.
“You
may not be aware of it, but whether it is your yellow pages, the
interactive websites of companies like Boeing or Morgan Stanley,
or the report on the X rays you had yesterday, the skilled hands
and brains of Indians are present.”
Prestowitz
reports that in 2000 Indian software exports were about $6
billion. By the end of 2004, they were estimated to have hit $16
billion. Deloitte forecast last year that within five years, the
world's largest financial firms will have shifted $356 billion
and 2 million jobs offshore, mostly to India.
Numbers
don’t lie: India is fast becoming the newest Asian tiger and
is on its path to riches.
According
to Prestowitz, every working person is now in competition with
his counterpart in another country. A software developer in
North America is in competition with software developers in
India. Call-center people in New York are in competition with
call-center people in India. “It is a whole new world of
international competition that we haven't ever seen before.”
It’s almost as if work had now become a sport, but not just
any sport: an Olympic sport. An Olympic economy, where the best
from any one country will compete against the best in every
other country.
Yet
the sad fact is, most people are struggling just to survive
information overload and to keep their job from being eliminated
or outsourced. And it’s getting worse. Prestowitz explains the
loss of workers’ bargaining power: “Some jobs are
outsourced. That creates the threat of outsourcing, which means
that the next time you come around for a salary review and a
salary increase, you know that it's possible that your job could
be outsourced, and therefore your demand for a raise might be
mooted.”
On
a more hopeful note, Prestowitz insists that “we have got to
be doing things that others can't do. We've got to be doing
things much better, much more productively than other people do
them.”
Ultimately,
Prestowitz’s book serves as a much needed warning, a wake-up
call to face the new realities of a truly globalized economy.
Given
this new competitive landscape, the next time your boss asks if
you can produce more with less, he might actually be giving you
an opportunity to save your job from going to Asia.
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